Thursday, July 2, 2015

Conference rankings: Why the SEC still reigns

Ever since the national championship game, which was the second straight not won by a team from the Southeastern Conference (gasp!), there have been rumblings that the other leagues have closed the gap.

Well of course they have somewhat. It's not like the SEC's seven-year title run was going to last forever. However, it has given some of the other leagues some more hope. 

"Maybe the Big Ten isn't that bad," Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said during his press conference after beating Oregon. "Maybe the Big Ten is pretty damn good, or certainly getting better. The mind is a fragile thing. ... There's no doubt that when we saw Wisconsin beat Auburn, that was a major, major moment for us to win this game."

He has a point, but does the Big Ten have a program that can contend for the national title other than Ohio State? Probably not, especially with Penn State still in the early stages of its rebound and Michigan only beginning to rebuild under new coach Jim Harbaugh.

Every year with my program rankings I add up the points by conference, and every year the outcome has been the same, with the SEC on top. Here are this year's totals: 

Conference totals
(Based on 2014 conference alignment)
Southeastern              7          929.3
Big Ten                       6          732.15
ACC                            4          398.2
Pac 12                        4          387.95
Big 12                         2          330.9
Independent               2          231.4
Mountain West           0          51
Conference USA        0          50
American Athletic       0          29
Mid-American             0          18

Sun Belt                     0           0

So how much did the gap close? Not as much as you probably guessed. 

Team (Top 25) Total points
1. SEC: One-year change -29.1; two-year -12.7; three-year +77.8; four-year -5.68
2. Big Ten One-year change +30.45; two-year -28.85; three-year -22.35; four-year +130.65
3. ACC: One-year change -4; two-year +3.7; three-year +28.2; four-year +25.7
4. Pac-12: One-year change +45.05; two-year +50.95; three-year +41.95; four-year +70.95
5. Big 12: One-year change -10; two-year +24.4; three-year -62.1; four-year -176.1

The real test for me is to pick a program in the middle of a league and compare it to the others. By my updated rankings the seventh-best program in the SEC is Texas A&M, which just spent $450 million to renovate Kyle Field. 

In the Big Ten that's Wisconsin (although it should probably be Minnesota) -- ok, not too far off.
In the ACC it's Wake Forest. Big difference. 
For the Pac-12, there's 12 teams so we'll use the sixth-ranked program, Arizona State. 
Finally, with the Big 12 having just 10 teams it's the fifth-place program: Kansas State. 

Have a good and safe 4th of July weekend everyone!

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