Wednesday, July 1, 2015

10 years of asking, "Who's No. 1?"


Ok, the preliminaries are over, time for the 10th anniversary of my annual program rankings. 


In 2005, I came up with the idea of trying define the hierarchy of programs -- not teams, programs -- to not only provide a little perspective on how there are really a couple of top tiers in college football, but also measure how they’re rising and falling.

It highlights 10 categories, five focusing on the previous year with the other half all-time (but slightly weighted to emphasize the modern era), while trying be as opinion-free as possible. They gauge the sport nearly every way possible, measuring the past and present to see which way the college football winds are blowing.

Or in other words, try and answer the question “Who’s No. 1?” because while the national championship may determine the best team of a particular season it doesn’t automatically translate to having the best overall program.

The categories:

From the previous season:
The number of former players on NFL rosters opening weekend
Academics (graduation rates)

As for the All-Time categories:
Bowl appearances
National championships (since 1936)
The All-Time Associated Press Poll (originally devised by former SEC assistant director of media relations Charles Woodroof)
Coaching legacy
College Football Hall of Fame inductees

The players on NFL rosters and academics rankings have already appeared on this blog. As for the all-time categories there are only a couple of changes from last year's rankings: The NCAA reinstate Joe Paterno's vacated wins (coaching legacy) and the Hall of Fame changed how it listed its inductees, putting each person with just the one school he's best associated with instead of with every school (I'll post something on that soon). 

For coaching legacy, which is easily the most controversial category, only the top coach in each program was considered. The rankings are a combination of an elaborate survey taken a few years ago, “Dell Presents College Football’s Greatest Coaches,” which included media, coaches, former great players and just about anyone associated with the game, and a point-based formula. 

Schools in the top 25 in each category received points similar to the weekly top 25 polls, going from 25-24-23, down to 3-2-1. The points were then added up and the programs listed in order.

So that's the full explanation. Are the numbers perfect? Of course not. It's essentially throwing everything into a blender and seeing what pours out. However, the wide range of categories appears to balance out the numbers, so while a program may score very well or poorly in one category it’s usually offset by another.

With all that in mind, there was no change at the top this year:

Rank   Program                                Points
1          Alabama                                  205.5  
2          Ohio State                               191.5              
3          USC                                         157.5  
4          Notre Dame                             153.5              
5          Florida State                            142.5  
6          Tennessee                              138.5  
7          Oklahoma                                136.5  
8          Penn State                              131                 
9          Texas                                      129                 
10        Georgia                                   124.9
11        Michigan                                 118
12        LSU                                         114.5
13        Nebraska                                107.75
14        Florida                                     84.5
15        Auburn                                    81.5
16        Clemson                                 69.4
17        UCLA                                      69.65
18        Miami                                      68
19        Texas A&M                              53.65
20        Army                                       51
21        Michigan State                        49
22        Oregon                                    44.5
23        Georgia Tech                          43.4
24        Minnesota                               42
25        Stanford                                  40.5

Others scoring points: Wisconsin 40; Ole Miss 38.75; TCU 31.9; Arkansas 29; Texas-San Antonio 25; California 24.5; Mississippi State 23; Northwestern 23; Rice 22;
Arizona State 21; Yale 21; South Carolina 20.5; Pittsburgh 20; Princeton 20; Air Force 20;Boise State 20; Baylor 19; Boston College 19; Northern Illinois 18; Central Florida 17; Chicago 17; Pennsylvania 16; Wake Forest 16; Washington 15.9; Missouri 15; Navy 13.5; Brigham Young 13.4; Illinois 11.5; Utah State 11; Harvard 11; Tulane 9; Iowa 8.5; Kansas State 8; North Carolina 8; Rutgers 8; Arizona 7; Texas Tech 6.5; Virginia Tech 6; Utah 5; Marshall 3; Louisville 2; Virginia 2; Temple 2; Colorado 1.9; Maryland 1.9; Syracuse 1.9; Cornell 1.5; Memphis 1; West Virginia .5

So what did we learn?

For the fifth straight year the top two programs didn’t change and the gap between them and everyone else has only grown. Paterno’s career numbers reinstated put Penn State back in the top 10 and knocked Michigan out, albeit probably only temporarily. Programs on the rise include Clemson, Tennessee and UCLA, and with Oregon close to making a dent in the all-time categories it’s close to perennial power status.

Also, the tiers I had previously mentioned, which used to be prominent after the top six or 7, and again after No. 15, are really beginning to fade. 

One thing that will surprise some people is that Alabama's gap over the field widened after it lost to Ohio State in the playoffs and the Buckeyes led the nation in home attendance last season. The reason why is the Crimson Tide climbed to third in number of former players in the NFL. When Nick Saban arrived in 2007 it wasn't in the top 25 in that category.  

No. 1 teams and total points
2005-06 Southern California 176.5
2006-07 Southern California 176
2007-08 Ohio State 182.5
2008-09 Ohio State 194.5
2009-10 Ohio State 186
2010-11 Alabama 204
2011-12 Alabama 184.5
2012-13 Alabama 199.5
2013-14 Alabama 194
2014-15 Alabama 205.5

Next: Conference rankings

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