Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Random thoughts about the NFL Draft ...

One of my pet peeves about this time of year is the constant talk of a prospect's stock rising or falling just before the NFL Draft.

Generally speaking, there is no such thing.

Teams spend all year accumulating information about players and evaluating. Prospects are assigned ratings/grades that are constantly tweaked and only at the end are full draft boards compiled.

When you hear that someone's draft stock is rising or falling it usually means the reporters are catching on that a player might be better or worse than he or she initially believed, or that someone has convinced them of that. Agents are lobbying for their clients, teams are hoping players they want may drop to them, and so on. The smokescreens can be blinding, especially with so much money at stake.

An obvious exception to this is when new information comes to light like a player does something stupid and gets arrested. Otherwise, my suggestion is don't listen to the rhetoric because it's just not worth it, and nobody knows what'll happen until the picks start being made.

• If Vegas were to put odds on how long it takes everyone's mock drafts to get crumbled up into a ball and thrown away my guess is it would be the third pick. Since there's not even a consensus best player (best player and top pick are two different things) there could be a ton of early trades this year. There were 11 in the first round last year, 12 the year before and 19 in 2012.

• There are just 10 NFL teams that currently don't have a former Alabama player on its roster: Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, Broncos, Chiefs, Giants, Redskins, Bears, Vikings and Buccaneers. Among them the team most likely to add one may be Kansas City as general manager John Dorsey has had former Nick Saban players on his teams before. The least likely is probably Minnesota as over the years I've head that Rick Spielman isn't fond of Crimson Tide products (Shame too, I'm a Vikings fan).

• Speaking of the Vikings, did anyone really believe they were going to trade running back Adrian Peterson? The only way that probably would have happened is if the Dallas Cowboys had called and said, "We'll give you everything back from the Herschel Walker deal."

• One guy I'd love to see the Vikings take, and every NFL fan should want on his or her team, is Harvard linebacker Zack Hodges. If you haven't read Lars Anderson's recent profile on him, "Left Parentless and Homeless, Harvard Star's Amazing Journey May Lead to the NFL," do yourself a favor and check it out.

• Food for thought from SI's Peter King: "I always wonder about an Alabama guy when Ozzie Newsome passes on him."

• If/when Alabama has a player selected in the first round it will tie Pittsburgh (1983-1989), Ohio State (1991-1997) and Florida (1997-2003) for the third-longest consecutive streak with at least one player drafted in the first round since the advent of the common draft in 1967. Alabama has a current streak of six consecutive drafts with at least one first-round pick. Miami (1995-2008) has the longest such streak with at least one first-round pick in 14 consecutive drafts.

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